In global leadership, leaders are constantly navigating between what is complicated vs. complex situations. Complicated systems or problems have many moving parts but can be solved with the right expertise and a solid process. Think of it like building a machine: each piece has a specific role, and once it’s put together, the solution becomes clear. On the other hand, complex systems or problems are far less predictable. They involve multiple variables that interact in ways we can’t always anticipate — like managing a diverse, multicultural team or making decisions in rapidly shifting markets.
In the leadership context, handling confirmation bias is more often a complex challenge than a complicated issue. Why? Because biases are deeply ingrained in how we think, process information, and make decisions. They are influenced not just by individual perspectives but also by the social, cultural, and organizational dynamics we’re part of. Solving for bias requires more than following a clear step-by-step process — it demands self-awareness, cognitive flexibility, and a willingness to challenge assumptions.
While complicated systems follow predictable patterns with clear rules and processes, complex systems involve numerous interdependent variables that can change over time, making outcomes less predictable. When addressing confirmation bias, leaders must recognize that they are navigating complex systems where cultural norms, team dynamics, and personal beliefs intersect. Unlike complicated systems, which can often be managed through established protocols, complex processes require adaptive strategies and continuous learning to identify and mitigate biases effectively.
In this post, we’ll explore how confirmation bias can complicate complex decision-making, especially in multicultural settings, and how recognizing the difference between complex and complicated problems can help leaders navigate these challenges more effectively.
Flipping The Switch On Bias: A Simple Way To View Confirmation Bias
Most of us aren’t electricians, but we all know the basics of how electricity works. If you want to light a room, all you need to do is flip a switch. You may not understand how the electricity travels through the wires or the mechanics behind how the lightbulb works, but you know what happens when you hit that switch — the room lights up. It’s simple, practical knowledge that we use every day without having to be experts.
Now, let’s apply that to the concept of bias. Bias, including confirmation bias, is embedded in our cognitive wiring, shaping our perceptions, judgments, and decisions even during deep learning processes.
It’s important to understand that bias doesn’t offer permanent solutions to decision-making challenges; it simply simplifies how we process information. However, relying on linear thinking in a world filled with complex dynamics can be risky. While complicated situations may have explainability questions that are easier to address with straightforward, step-by-step solutions, bias thrives in systems characterized by unpredictability and human complexity, where outcomes can vary, and behavior is less predictable. In these types of systems, complex answers are often required to effectively address bias, rather than simple answers that only scratch the surface. Understanding and managing bias isn’t just about recognizing it — it’s about adopting a mindset capable of navigating both complicated and complex systems effectively.
You don’t need to be a psychologist to understand that bias exists and influences your decisions, just as you don’t need to be an electrician to light a room. Confirmation bias is when we tend to notice information that supports what we already believe, and ignore or downplay anything that challenges those beliefs. It happens all the time, often without us realizing it.
The important thing is that, just like with the light switch, you don’t need to fully understand the psychology behind bias to manage it. What’s crucial is knowing that bias exists and learning how to flip the mental ‘switch’ to recognize when it’s happening. By doing this, you can ‘light up’ better, more balanced decision-making — whether that’s in your day-to-day leadership choices or in bigger, more complex decisions involving your team.
Shedding Light On Better Decisions: How To Use Bias To Your Advantage
Now that we’ve established the analogy, let’s dig a little deeper. Just like electricity, bias can be a powerful force — both positively and negatively. When you understand how it works, you can use it to your advantage. But if you let it run unchecked, it can lead to bad outcomes, much like overloading a circuit might cause a blackout.
In leadership, understanding bias is crucial for making informed, effective decisions. Just like how you can flip the switch to control the lights, you can ‘flip the switch’ on your awareness of bias to ensure it doesn’t cloud your judgment. Leaders who don’t acknowledge their biases risk making decisions based on incomplete or skewed information. This can lead to misunderstandings, missed opportunities, and poor team dynamics — especially in multicultural settings where different perspectives are key to success.
By recognizing that bias exists, you’re already halfway to controlling it. You don’t need to be an expert on every type of bias, but you do need to know that it’s influencing your thinking. When you can acknowledge and manage bias, you ‘light up’ your decision-making, allowing you to see all angles clearly, just like turning on a light illuminates a room. Leaders who can flip this switch are able to make more objective, inclusive decisions that benefit both their teams and their organizations.
Are You Biased?
The short, definitive answer? Yes.
As leaders, we all have biases. They are a natural part of how we process information, formed through our experiences, backgrounds, and values. While bias is human, unchecked biases can lead to flawed decision-making, especially when we’re leading diverse, multicultural teams.
One of the most common and potentially harmful biases in business decision-making is confirmation bias. See here my favorite list of unconscious biases that you should know about.
Confirmation bias occurs when we unconsciously seek out information that supports our existing beliefs and ignore or dismiss data that contradicts them. While this might seem harmless at first glance, it can have significant consequences in leadership roles.
For example, imagine you’re a leader recruiting two candidates for a position that requires a high level of innovation and creativity. One candidate is German, and the other is Brazilian. You carry an unconscious bias that Germans are too rigid and structured to be truly creative. Without realizing it, during the interviews, you ask each candidate different questions — ones that unintentionally highlight the supposed stiffness of the German candidate and the resourcefulness of the Brazilian. In the end, you choose the Brazilian because you equate their “MacGyver” style of problem-solving with creativity and innovation. But later, you discover the hard way that innovation also requires structure to avoid shortcuts that could lead to compliance or regulatory issues. If you had been aware of your bias and addressed it, would you have made a different decision during the hiring process?
Unconscious bias operates at a high complexity level, influencing behavior and decision-making in unpredictable ways. However, understanding its impact doesn’t require mastery of complexity theory. Even a basic awareness of how biases affect our perceptions can help leaders recognize their presence and mitigate their influence. Let’s explore the impact of confirmation bias next.
The Impact Of Confirmation Bias On Decision-Making
Imagine you’re a successful global leader spearheading a team on a global project. You’ve formed an opinion about how one particular region handles project deadlines based on past experiences. If you have confirmation bias, you might only notice the instances that support your view, ignoring evidence that shows the region is exceeding expectations. Much like what happened in the hiring process example. This can result in poor decisions, missed opportunities, and strained collaborative relationships.
In multicultural teams, confirmation bias can be especially damaging. Working with people from diverse cultures requires a willingness to question assumptions, engage with different perspectives, and embrace the complexity of multicultural communication. If confirmation bias goes unchecked, it can stifle innovation, cause miscommunication, and create unnecessary tensions among team members.
A Real-World Example: Confirmation Bias In Multinational Teams
In large global corporations, it’s easy for leaders to fall into the trap of confirmation bias when making decisions about team performance or similar complex issues. For example, an executive might believe that employees from one cultural background are better suited for specific tasks or roles, based solely on past experiences. If confirmation bias goes unchecked, this can lead to unfair task assignments, overlooked talent, and a lack of diversity in critical decision-making processes.
By actively challenging your own assumptions and encouraging your team to do the same, you can foster a more inclusive and dynamic work environment, where different perspectives are not only welcomed but leveraged for better business outcomes and financial metrics. You are teaching and inspiring your team to think critically. You can start by asking, “What are our assumptions in this scenario?” Then, you can go a step further by asking, “What evidence do we have that these assumptions are real?” Entice yourself and your team to look for facts and data to either support or deny an assumption. You can also assign a team member to be the “devil’s advocate” if you are serious about practicing with your team to challenge assumptions.
Bias and focus are closely linked. What we focus on shapes our perspective, according to Cialdini’s research, and bias often arises when we narrow our attention to certain details that confirm our existing beliefs. However, just as focus can reinforce bias, it can also be used to counter it. By consciously shifting our focus — whether by seeking out different viewpoints or exploring new information — we can broaden our perspective and challenge our assumptions. When we make an effort to focus on what we might be missing, we naturally start to question our biases, allowing us to make more balanced and informed decisions. In this way, managing focus is a powerful tool for reducing bias.
How To Use Confirmation Bias To Increase Your Likability
One fascinating way to leverage confirmation bias is by consciously liking people first to boost our own likability. Research by human behavior expert Vanessa Van Edwards, as shared in her book Captivate: The Science of Succeeding with People, reveals that when we start by liking someone, we naturally look for cues that confirm our positive perception. This is where confirmation bias works in our favor. Essentially, because we expect them to be likable, we’ll notice small things—like their smile, warmth, or shared interests—that reinforce this view.
As a result, we also tend to ask questions that signal interest and curiosity, making us appear more engaging and personable. This approach not only improves our rapport but also makes others feel more seen and appreciated, enhancing the likelihood they’ll like us back. Van Edwards elaborates on this balance in her second book, Cues: Master the Secret Language of Charismatic Communication, where she explains that combining likability with credibility creates a trustworthy presence.
To hear her insights directly, check out her guest appearance in a podcast interview around the 10-minute mark, where she discusses this research and how showing genuine interest in others can lead to more positive, lasting connections.
What Is Decision Fatigue And How It Relates To Bias?
Decision fatigue happens when the quality of your decisions deteriorates after a long session of decision-making or when you make too many decisions in a row, which impairs your cognitive processes to keep deciding on things further.
When we’re mentally drained, our biases — including confirmation bias — tend to surface more strongly. Why? Because our brain seeks the path of least resistance. Instead of carefully weighing each option, we might default to choices that confirm what we already believe or decisions that feel familiar and comfortable.
How Decision Fatigue Amplifies Bias
We’ve all been there—after a long day packed with meetings, decisions, and unexpected challenges, your brain feels like it’s running on fumes. At this point, you’re more likely to lean on mental shortcuts, which can often mean relying on your existing beliefs and assumptions. This is where decision fatigue comes into play, and it can lead to the amplification of biases, especially confirmation bias.
For example, after hours of back-to-back meetings, you might find yourself making a snap judgment about a team member’s performance based on a previous perception rather than the facts in front of you. Maybe you’ve already formed an opinion about a particular department’s efficiency or a specific market’s growth potential, and instead of carefully considering all the input, you gravitate toward the information that fits your preconceptions. This bias can cloud your ability to make well-rounded decisions, and over time, it can create blind spots that affect both your leadership and the team’s overall performance.
In multicultural teams, decision fatigue poses an even greater risk. When you’re exhausted, it becomes harder to embrace the diverse perspectives that are vital to innovation and collaboration. Instead, you might fall back on stereotypes or preconceived notions about certain cultures or working styles. This limits the potential for truly creative, inclusive solutions and can alienate team members who feel their voices aren’t being heard.
When I was the head of finance for Latin America, I often encountered strong biases from global leaders against the region. We were seen as less competent, less educated, less tech-savvy, and less capable of solving problems — in short, we were viewed as “less” in almost every way. Changing this bias was incredibly difficult, and the result was that we had to work ten times harder than other regions. Not only because of the bias itself, but also because fewer resources were allocated to us as a result of it. Yes, complex systems are often interconnected and feel like a catch-22. This is a prime example of the impact bias can have on global leadership: it can lead to favoring or overlooking certain regions, people, or teams, all due to unconscious assumptions.
Being aware of how decision fatigue amplifies bias is the first step toward managing it. As a leader, it’s essential to recognize when mental exhaustion is causing you to overlook valuable insights and rely on biased thinking. By addressing decision fatigue, you’ll not only make better choices but also create a more inclusive and innovative team environment.
Stay Ahead Of Decision Fatigue
Managing decision fatigue isn’t just about powering through endless tasks and meetings. In fact, the key to staying sharp and minimizing bias is knowing when to pause. Regular breaks throughout the day can help reset your mind and give you a fresh perspective when you return to making decisions. Even stepping away for a few minutes can recharge your cognitive abilities and help you tackle complex problems more effectively.
Delegating decisions is another crucial strategy. Leaders often feel the need to be involved in every choice, but spreading out the decision-making load among trusted team members can help reduce the mental strain that leads to fatigue. This not only prevents burnout but also encourages diversity of thought. By empowering others to make decisions, you bring more perspectives into the mix, which can mitigate the risks of biased thinking.
Structuring your day to handle the most important decisions when you’re at your sharpest is another way to stay ahead of decision fatigue. For most people, this might mean tackling high-stakes or complex tasks early in the day, when your cognitive resources are at their peak. By planning your day around your mental energy levels, you’re more likely to have a more holistic approach to decisions, with clarity, and avoid falling into bias traps.
Finally, creating a work environment that values and encourages diversity of thought can help you stay ahead of bias. When you actively foster a culture where different ideas are not only welcomed but sought out, you’ll be more resistant to confirmation bias and other forms of biased thinking. Encouraging team members to challenge assumptions and offer alternative viewpoints can help keep decision fatigue and bias in check, ensuring that your leadership is both effective and inclusive.
The Power Of Short Breaks To Reset The Mind
When it comes to recharging your mental energy, you don’t need hours of downtime. In fact, research shows that short breaks, even a two-minute break every hour or two, can have a profound impact on reducing mental overload by reducing brain wave activity and “resetting” the mind. Think of it as hitting the reset button. These small breaks give your brain a chance to catch up, rest, and refocus, allowing you to come back to your work with a clearer perspective.
Incorporating brief breathing exercises or moments of meditation into your day can be highly effective. For example, taking a few slow, deep breaths while closing your eyes for just a minute can significantly reduce stress and help clear mental clutter. Stepping away from your desk or simply getting up to stretch can also give you the mental distance needed to return to a decision or task with fresh eyes. It’s not about abandoning your responsibilities—it’s about maintaining the clarity and focus necessary to make sound, objective decisions.
If it’s difficult for you to guide yourself through a break, here is a great 5-minute guided meditation for mind reset and renewed clarity from the MindfulPeace YouTube channel:
(if you can’t see the YouTube video below due to your cookie selections, you can use the following link to watch the 5-minute guided meditation.)
In high-stakes environments, where leaders are faced with numerous critical decisions, these short, intentional breaks are essential. They not only reduce stress but also boost your cognitive capacity, making you less likely to fall into the traps of biases like confirmation bias. By pausing, even for a brief moment, you allow your brain to process information more efficiently and objectively, ultimately improving the quality of your decisions. The next time you feel overwhelmed or stuck in a particular mindset, remember that even a small break can provide the mental reset you need to think more clearly and make better, unbiased choices.
Beyond Breaks: Building Cognitive Resilience Against Bias
While short breaks are helpful for recharging your mental energy, avoiding bias requires more than just downtime. Building cognitive resilience against bias involves developing certain key skills that strengthen your ability to recognize and counteract biased thinking. The more you cultivate these skills, the more capable you become of making balanced and informed decisions, even under pressure.
Cognitive resilience refers to the brain’s ability to adapt, recover, and continue functioning effectively when faced with challenges like stress, fatigue, or bias. Resilience is the mental toughness that helps you stay clear-headed and flexible, allowing you to process information, solve problems, and make decisions without being overwhelmed by external pressures or internal biases.
Three key components of cognitive resilience can help us counter our biases.
The first crucial skill is knowledge of biases. Simply being aware that biases exist and understanding how they can influence your thinking is the foundation for minimizing their impact. Confirmation bias, for instance, is when you seek out information that aligns with your existing beliefs and ignore evidence that contradicts them. By learning about common biases like this, you can begin to notice when they might be influencing your decisions.
Next, self-awareness is vital. This means recognizing your own mental triggers and tendencies. Are there situations or topics where you’re more prone to letting bias slip in? Perhaps it’s when you’re rushed, stressed, or dealing with a familiar issue. The more self-aware you are, the easier it becomes to spot when a bias is creeping into your decision-making process.
Finally, critical thinking is one of the most powerful tools for cutting through bias. Asking powerful questions and applying methods like the 5 powers of clarity — questions that challenge your assumptions, push you to consider alternative perspectives, and dig deeper into the root of a problem—helps you to evaluate situations more objectively. This practice encourages you to view decisions from all angles, making it easier to counter bias and arrive at well-rounded, thoughtful conclusions.
By developing these three skills — awareness of biases, self-awareness, and critical thinking — you’ll build a stronger defense against biased decision-making, enabling you to lead with clarity and confidence, no matter the situation.
Want To Go Deeper In Fighting Your Biases? Consider These Extra Resources
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Here are three books that address unconscious biases, particularly confirmation bias, aimed at corporate executives and global decision-makers:
Thinking, Fast and Slow
By Daniel Kahneman
- Overview: This book explores the two systems of thinking—System 1 (fast, instinctive, and emotional) and System 2 (slow, deliberate, and logical). Kahneman delves into how biases like confirmation bias influence decision-making and how executives can become more aware of these biases to improve business decisions.
- Relevance: Ideal for corporate leaders, Kahneman offers actionable insights on how to recognize and mitigate biases that can impact decision-making in high-stakes environments.
The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds
By Michael Lewis
- Overview: This book tells the story of the collaboration between psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, who pioneered the study of cognitive biases, including confirmation bias. It explains how their research applies to real-world decision-making, particularly in corporate and business settings.
- Relevance: The narrative focuses on the origins of behavioral economics, helping executives understand the root of biases and how they can avoid faulty thinking in corporate decision-making.
Blindspot: Hidden Biases of Good People
By Mahzarin R. Banaji and Anthony G. Greenwald
- Overview: “Blindspot” explores the hidden biases we all carry and how these biases can impact our decisions. It specifically addresses how biases like confirmation bias affect leadership and decision-making in a corporate environment.
- Relevance: This book is especially useful for global leaders and decision-makers, as it provides tools to recognize and challenge biases in themselves and their teams, fostering more inclusive and effective leadership.
These books provide practical frameworks for executives to recognize and overcome biases, improving decision-making in complex global environments.
Final Remarks: Managing Complex Problems With Cognitive Flexibility
As we’ve discussed, confirmation bias can feel difficult to manage, especially when leading in fast-paced, multicultural environments. However, it’s important to recognize that bias isn’t just a complicated obstacle — it’s part of the complex nature of leadership. Complex problems, by definition, don’t have straightforward solutions, and dealing with bias is no different. But with the right tools and strategies, you can navigate these challenges with confidence.
Awareness is the first step. Knowing that biases like confirmation bias exist and understanding how they influence your decisions allows you to catch them before they take over. From there, critical thinking comes into play. Asking the right questions and considering diverse perspectives can help you dig deeper into the decisions you’re making and ensure you’re not falling into mental traps. Finally, don’t underestimate the power of strategic breaks. Taking time to reset your mind — whether through short breaks, meditation, or reflection — can refresh your cognitive capacity and help your analytical approach to problems with a clear, unbiased mindset.
By building these skills and using them consistently, you’ll develop cognitive flexibility — the ability to adapt your thinking, consider new perspectives, and handle complex leadership challenges. This flexibility is crucial for making balanced, well-informed decisions, especially when working with diverse teams. The more you practice, the more effectively you’ll be able to lead your organization through complexity, using bias as a tool rather than an obstacle.
If you are looking for a leadership development partner and consultant to help you develop cognitive flexibility and resilience to fight biases in a complex environment, you can hire me as your executive and development coach. Have a Free Strategy Call with me.
If you are interested in developing specific global leadership skills, personally or team-wise, check out our online Global Executive Leadership program. We go over all The Global Leadership Pillars™ during 9 online modules, specially meant for global leadership development. It’s a unique leadership training methodology that will change the way you think, relate, and strategize as a global leader. You can also subscribe to our global leadership podcast, The Leadership Nest.
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